A Social History of E-Bikes

E-bikes have exploded on the scene in recent years, seemingly out of nowhere.  Although they are still relatively rare in the USA, we now see E-bikes of European and Chinese design reaching our shores simultaneously, and increasing in popularity.  A brief history of how we got to where we are today is in order.

The E-bike has a long pre-history, going back as far as the invention of electricity and bicycles themselves [Electricbike.com: E-Bike Patents].  However, the modern history of e-bikes starts around the year 1995, with widespread availability of cheap neodynium magnets.  That set the stage for what has happened since in China, the mother load of e-bikes worldwide.

E-Bikes in China

Since 1990, China has urbanized at a breakneck pace, growing from about 200 million urban residents in 1990, to 700 million in 2015.  This influx of 500 million new urban residents has transformed every Chinese city, and led to the rapid rise of brand new cities as well.  Shenzen, for example, sitting just outside of Hong Kong, is now one of the world's largest cities with 11 million inhabitants; and also one of China's wealthiest.  But in 1980, Shenzen was little more than farmland and villages [Shenzen Before and After].  Similarly, Shanghai went hi-rise seemingly overnight.  Meanwhile, Beijing built multiple ring roads as fast as possible.  All these cities are now linked together with the world's largest high-speed rail network; which was built, seemingly overnight, starting around 2008.

Through the end of the 1980's, China had been known as the "bicycle kingdom," a place where most urbanites relied on Flying Pigeon bicycles for their day-to-day transportation [Bicycle Kingdom Photos].  As Chinese cities grew to many times their former size, new transportation systems would be needed.  Chinese officials at the time saw bicycles as "backwards," and planned on a more modern approach based on mass motoring.  Of course Chinese cities, with their high population densities and hemmed in by valuable farm land, would never be able to accommodate car ownership levels seen in America.  It was therefore assumed that the majority would abandon their bicycles for the new rapid transit systems being built; freeing up street space for an elite motoring minority.

The only problem with this plan was to get people to abandon their two wheels in favor of mass transit.  As Chinese citizens grew wealthier, they increasingly traded in their Flying Pigeon not for a transit pass, but for a motor scooter.  These two-stroke pollution machines contributed significantly to China's rapidly deteriorating air quality.  They were also seen as a cause of congestion, i.e. an impediment to freeing up more road space for cars.  Seeking to kill two birds with one stone, Chinese cities began to ban motor scooters, starting with Shanghai in 1996 [Overview].

Motor scooter bans combined with technological innovations and rising incomes to set the e-bike / e-scooter market on fire: sales rose from almost nothing in 1996 to over 40 million in 2010.  Chinese sales of electric bicycles and scooters are predicted to reach 60 million in 2018 [Treehugger] (about 30 million of that is e-bikes).  Compare to automobile sales of about 30 million.  Two-wheeled vehicles continue to remain more popular than personal automobiles; and it's easy to see why, for anyone stuck in a traffic jam.  Today, there are about 200 million e-bikes on the road in China.

But the story does not end there.  Many of the e-bikes on the road in China are of dubious design.  Many look more like scooters than bicycles, and contain vestigal pedals just so they can be classified as a "bicycle" rather than a "motor scooter."  Should these vehicles really be classified as "bicycles"?  Even today, most e-bikes sold in China use heavy-but-cheap lead acid batteries; the proliferation of 200 million unregulated bundles of lead has also caused serious pollution concerns.  Many e-bikes in China do not even conform to existing regulations, most notably a top speed of 20 km/h (12 mph).  Finally, there is a general lack of driving / traffic skill on all sides in China, where mass motoring is new and traffic networks have appeared almost overnight.

The result of this is a dangerous and chaotic transportation system [WSJ].  Frustrated with the congestion, the crashes, the lack of adherence to product standards and the lawlessness on the streets, an increasing number of Chinese cities are now banning e-bikes [Forbes].  Chinese cities, which were ripping out bike lanes as recently as the early 2000's, are now begining to reverse course [Citylab][Xiamen], even as bicycle infrastructure remains a prominent feature of Chinese cities [NRDC].  Meanwhile, Chinese society is moving onto the next innovation in mass two-wheeled transportation, the dockless bike share [NYTimes] [Wharton]; which brings with it with a whole new set of problems.  In addition to the automobiles, trucks, motor scooters, e-bikes, pedestrians and the occasional Flying Pigeon, there are now 16 million dockless shared e-bikes on the roads in China's cities.

Where is this all going?  Nobody knows; Chinese cities are changing so fast that 5-year-old statistics are woefully out of date.  However, one can speculate based on a review of the past 30 years:

1. Two-wheeled transportation will remain popular, despite all government plans to the contrary.  There is simply not enough road space for any other outcome.  Rapid transit can never match the convenience, speed, price and efficiency of two-wheeled transportation.  That dynamic is especially true for the urban poor, who typically live far from quality transit.  Apparently, rapid transit is also overwhelmed with demand in some places [Wharton].
2. China's transportation future is electric: electric cars, e-bikes, e-scooters, electric motorcycles are in; internal combustion engines are out.  In fact, China is now phasing out the ICE for all vehicles, not just motor scooters [Economist].
3. Better regulations for the manufacture and use of e-bikes and e-scooters are desperately needed, if the sector is to achieve a permanent place in Chinese urban transportation.  Lead-acid batteries need to be banned; and for the majority of people who want to travel faster than 20 km/h, better regulations need to be put in place for electric scooters, even those without pedals.  Users of two-wheeled vehicles need to better respect traffic normal traffic regulations (for example, riding the right way on the street).

Incidentally, Asian popularity of E-bikes and motor scooters is not limited just to mainland China.  Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Taiwan and many other places also have a thriving two-wheeled culture, with various mixes between bicycles, e-bikes, e-scooters and internal combustion engines.

E-Bikes in Europe

With 60 million produced each year, China is the undisputed world leader in e-bikes.  Let's now head over to Western Europe, a distant second, which is also developing an extensive e-bike culture.  Statistically, the e-bike story there starts around the year 2010, when about 600,000 e-bikes were sold; that number has now increased to almost 2 million [E-Bike Sales], and there is speculation that e-bike sales in Europe may be reducing automobile sales [Forbes].

So far, European e-bikes have evolved independently from Chinese e-bikes, and are different in a number of ways.  First of all, European regulations define an e-bike as going up to 25 km/h, but it must be pedal-assist only (or "pedelec"), meaning throttles are not allowed.  Compared to Chinese e-bikes, European e-bikes are therefore faster but also more bike-like; scooter-type e-bikes with vestigal pedals and lead-acid batteries are not common in Europe.  Historically --- meaning over the past 8 years --- European e-bikes imported to the USA have also been quite a bit more expensive, offering less power and range for more money.  The implicit assumption has been that this extra money is worth it, due to the perceived low quality of anything Chinese; but that is not always true, as we will see (below).

The vast majority of Chinese e-bikes rely on an electric motor inside the hub of the rear wheel, or sometimes front wheel.  In this design, a fixed-gear motor directly drives the front or rear wheel, and is completely independent of the "regular" bicycle drive train.  Hub motors are cheap and reliable, and used in many Chinese, European and American e-bikes [ElectricBike.com].  But they do have a few downsides.  They make it hard to change a flat on the rear wheel; so hard, in fact, that many American bike shops refuse to do it.  They are less energy-efficient, requiring a larger/heavier battery for equal range.  And finally, they don't perform well on hills.

In contrast, an increasing number of European e-bikes --- especially high-end models --- now use a mid-drive design, in which a motor is mounted on the bottom bracket and drives the front sprocket, along with the pedals [Evelo].  Because the mid drive motor is subject to the same transmission as the pedals, the user can help it out by shifting down when going up hills and shifting up when going down hills.  This makes it fundamentally more efficient than a hub motor, a driving design factor for the European market, which limits power assist to a relatively skimpy 250W.  Mid-drive bicycles also feel more like a manual bicycle, and are lighter than a hub motor bike with equivalent range.

Until recently, the main disadvantage of the hub motor has been the extensive customization frame design required to accommodate one, resulting in high prices.  Prices have come down as European manufacturers are achieving economy of scale.  Raleigh, for example, now sells compelling mid-drive bicycles for about $2,000, which is only a little more than the $1,500 required to buy a Chinese hub motor bicycle of similar performance and range.

Although e-bike penetration in Europe is far smaller than in China, market growth has occurred more smoothly.  European cities generally welcome e-bikes as a way to increase bicycle usage and (hopefully) decrease automobile use.  The dynamic is most pronounced in places with already-established bicycle culture (eg Netherlands), where e-bikes now outsell manual bikes.

For the future, I would predict continued modest but significant year-on-year growth of e-bikes and integration into the overall transportation environment.  The story is not as exciting as in China; but in 10-20 years, could result in significant e-bike share [Emubikes] [NYTimes].

But of course, we live in a globalized society, and nobody is immune from Chinese innovation.  European e-bike manufacturers just filed an anti-dumping lawsuit against China [CNN].  This is unfortunate: they are complaining that Chinese e-bikes sell for as little as $450, whereas European e-bikes go for $1500 and up.  My experience in the USA indicates that Chinese e-bikes that work reliably and use Lithium-Ion batteries cost $1500, about the same as the cheapest European e-bikes in Europe.  Therefore, European e-bike manufacturers might do better just to get a ban on lead-acid e-bikes, while focusing customers on the benefits of mid-drive.

E-Bikes in New York City

The e-bike story begins in the USA in 2002, when George W. Bush signed a Federal law defining e-bikes as something that has pedals, an electric motor up to 70W, and a top speed of no more than 32 km/h (20 mph) [USC 2885].  This legalized e-bikes as a consumer product, meaning it was legal to buy and sell them; however, states could still define what they would allow on their roads, and under what conditions.  The law in New York State, written when "motorized bicycle" meant a 100kg (220 lb) gasoline-powered moped, requires that mopeds are registered; and it simultaneously does not allow e-bikes to be registered as a Class C moped, because they have not be certified as such by their manufacturers.  This leaves them illegal to operate in New York State, a kafkaesque collision of bureaucracy and technological progress.

None of these details mattered, of course, unless they are enfoced.  A few e-bike retailers established themselves in Chinatown.  These shops spec out what they want manufactured, and then order that model in bulk from China.  They then set up and sell those bicycles to customers in their retail shops, and provide service and maintenance for the life of the bike.  The e-bikes sold in these shops are generally the top quality available in China, use Lithium-ion batteries, and sell for similarly more than a typical e-bike does in China --- $1500, rather than $400.  By 2009, a noticeable fraction of restaurant delivery workers in New York City were relying on these Chinese e-bikes for their day-to-day work, and New Yorkers in general began to notice [NYTimes].

That article was how I first learned about e-bikes, and I couldn't get it out of my mind.  Soon after, I found myself trying out e-bikes at the Kysmo shop, one of the dominant e-bike retailers at the time.  I took the bike on a test-drive over the Manhattan Bridge, and I was hooked.  That is how I plunged into the world of e-bikes.  At the time, and still today, there is a two-class system of e-bikes in NYC.  Almost all Chinese e-bikes are used by restaurant delivery workers; I was and remain one of the few customers buying a Chinese e-bike for commuting to my job, rather than using on the job.  My current e-bike is quite reliable and an incredible transportation value.  There is of course no inherent truth to the racist stereotype that Chinese products as a class are inferior.

While getting my bike maintained, I have taken the time to get to know some of the other customers, who are restaurant delivery workers.  It truly is life on the bottom of New York City culture.  Knowing what I know now, I tip a standard $4 for restaurant delivery.  This is double the suggested $2 tip on Seamless web.

I knew back in 2009 that e-bikes were technically illegal.  But I figured my chance of getting caught was low, and that the NY State legislature would soon resolve the gray legality of this obviously good technology.  I was wrong on both counts.  Eight years later, the NY State assembly has still failed to clarify the legality of e-bikes.  Meanwhile, e-bikes have become a favorite target of complaint for New Yorkers, and numerous articles have been written about the issue.  Local laws were also passed, doubling all bicycle fines if they involve an e-bike.  In particular, the fine for just riding an e-bike was set at $500-$1,000 [Daily News]; this is double the fine for killing someone with a car, which is only $500 [Streetsblog].  Unfortunately, the law went from "needing improvement" to "just plain absurd."

Punitive laws did nothing to quell the rise of e-bikes, and increasingly media outlets called on legislators to legalize and regulate them instead.  Usually, the NYPD does not typically ticket e-bikes because they have better things to do.  However, in response to community pressure, they do periodically conduct dragnets.

For example, in March 2017, NYPD cracked down on "illegal e-bikes", seizing 247 of them in 24 hours [AMNY].  This "crackdown" was a thinly veiled form of institutionalized racism.  As is apparent from the picture, all the confiscated e-bikes are the same model from the same Chinatown bike retailer (the only one still there; they put the others out of business because their bikes were higher quality and didn't break).  This crackdown just put 247 low-paid workers --- people who can least afford it --- out of a job.  Restaurant delivery workers report persistent police harassment, whereas I have not heard of even one e-bike commuter having their bicycle confiscated.  The culture seems to be one that blames the people with the least power to fight back.

Although the legislature has been paralyzed since 2009, one new development has come up: apparently, pedal-assist e-bikes are not illegal in NYC after all [CityLab].  I'm white and I don't delivery food for my job; so I know that the chances of having my e-bike confiscated are low.  And if my (now-used) e-bike were confiscated, I certainly wouldn't pay $500 to get it back --- just to get it confiscated again?  Instead, I would put that money into a new European pedelec.  But just in case, I decided it was time to disable my throttle, thus converting my e-bike into a pedelec, at least as far as the law is concerned.  Duct tape to the rescue!  We will see if this "fix" is ever tested in court.  But if it works, it's something that every restaurant delivery worker should consider.  If only I knew a way to share that information with them.

Unfortunately, e-bikes of all types are still illegal in New York State outside of NYC.  But once you leave the Five Boroughs, nobody cares.  Hopefully, the legislature will act before people start noticing e-bikes in the suburbs.